GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-42
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 33.0, "implied_p": 0.33} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-42", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2537313432835821, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Donald Trump say during Roundtable on No Tax on Tips?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 33.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet bet_size: 0 Reason: I have no information edge on what Trump will say, and the question is underspecified (unknown what YES resolves to). Without a clear probability estimate that differs from the market's 33c, expected value is ~0 minus fees/risk, so no bet is rational.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet\n\nbet_size: 0\n\nReason: I have no information edge on what Trump will say, and the question is underspecified (unknown what YES resolves to). Without a clear probability estimate that differs from the market's 33c, expected value is ~0 minus fees/risk, so no bet is rational.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.19320011138916
}