GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-35
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 20.0, "implied_p": 0.2} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.49999999999999994, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Alexandr Binda win the Gray vs Binda: Round Of 32 match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 20.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
{"action": "no_bet", "probability": 0.2, "bet_size": 0.0, "confidence": 0.6, "reasoning": "I have no information about Binda or Gray beyond the market's own 20-cent price, so my best estimate equals the market's implied 20% and there is no positive edge, leaving the Kelly-optimal wager at zero."}
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": 0.6,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I have no information about Binda or Gray beyond the market's own 20-cent price, so my best estimate equals the market's implied 20% and there is no positive edge, leaving the Kelly-optimal wager at zero.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 32.34431529045105
}