GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-33
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 32.0, "implied_p": 0.32} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-33", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2647058823529412, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. EDward Gaming Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 32.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: `no_bet`, bet_size `0.0`** Reasoning: The market price (22¢) implies ~22% for YES. My best probability estimate for a team winning by 3+ runs is close to that consensus, giving no meaningful edge. With zero expected edge, Kelly says bet nothing — any positive stake is just paying the spread. (If I had a superior, well-calibrated estimate of ~30%, the Kelly fraction would be (0.30−0.22)/0.78 ≈ 10%, but I have no basis to override the market here.)
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.22,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: `no_bet`, bet_size `0.0`**\n\nReasoning: The market price (22\u00a2) implies ~22% for YES. My best probability estimate for a team winning by 3+ runs is close to that consensus, giving no meaningful edge. With zero expected edge, Kelly says bet nothing \u2014 any positive stake is just paying the sp",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.60975193977356
}