GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-32
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. Shopify Rebellion League of Legends match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 71.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**no_bet, bet_size = 0.0** My probability estimate: p ≈ 0.74 (I have no private edge over the market, so I defer to the 74¢ price). Kelly fraction for buying YES at price c: f = p − (1−p)·c/(1−c) = 0.74 − (0.26)(0.74/0.26) = 0. No edge → no bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.74,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**no_bet, bet_size = 0.0**\n\nMy probability estimate: p \u2248 0.74 (I have no private edge over the market, so I defer to the 74\u00a2 price).\n\nKelly fraction for buying YES at price c: f = p \u2212 (1\u2212p)\u00b7c/(1\u2212c) = 0.74 \u2212 (0.26)(0.74/0.26) = 0. No edge \u2192 no bet.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.370254039764404
}