GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-30
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 61.0, "implied_p": 0.61} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-30", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Galions win the Galions vs. Esprit Shonen Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 61.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size 0 I have no information edge over the market here: without knowing the teams' form, my probability estimate defaults to the implied 0.61, matching the price. At 61¢ (net odds ~0.64), Kelly stake = (b·p − q)/b ≈ (0.64·0.61 − 0.39)/0.64 ≈ 0, so no bet is the rational decision.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.61,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0\n\nI have no information edge over the market here: without knowing the teams' form, my probability estimate defaults to the implied 0.61, matching the price. At 61\u00a2 (net odds ~0.64), Kelly stake = (b\u00b7p \u2212 q)/b \u2248 (0.64\u00b70.61 \u2212 0.39)/0.64 \u2248 0, so no bet is the rational decision.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.633419036865234
}