GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-value-3

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectBig-Pickle
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 35.5, "implied_p": 0.355}
score{"id": "market-value-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Bitcoin): "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 14?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.50 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

Decision: **no_bet**, bet_size **0.00**

Reasoning: This is a narrow $2k band one resolution-day out on a volatile asset, and the market (an actively traded Polymarket daily-range contract) priced YES at 35.5¢. With BTC sitting near/just above the band and no information advantage over the market, my fair estimate (~34%) is essentially at the 35.5¢ price, so buying YES has ~zero expected value. The rational play is to pass.

```json
{"action": "no_bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "confidence": 0.34, "reasoning": "My ~0.34 estimate is at market (35.5c) with no edge, so YES has ~zero EV; pass."}
```

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": 0.34,
 "probability": null,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My ~0.34 estimate is at market (35.5c) with no edge, so YES has ~zero EV; pass.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 165.59224033355713
}