GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-26
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 12.0, "implied_p": 0.12} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-26", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.22, "kelly_dev": 0.21181818181818182, "realized_return": 1.6133333333333335, "ev_score": 1.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Springfield Thunderbirds vs Hartford Wolf Pack Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 12.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
{"action":"bet","bet_size":0.22,"confidence":0.5,"probability":0.5,"reasoning":"YES = Hartford Wolf Pack wins. An AHL head-to-head winner market should price near 50/50, so 12 cents is massively mispriced; edge is 0.50-0.12=+0.38/share. Full Kelly ~43%, but given uncertainty about rosters/goalies I bet conservative half-Kelly at 22% of bankroll ($220)."}
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.22,
"confidence": 0.5,
"probability": 0.5,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "YES = Hartford Wolf Pack wins. An AHL head-to-head winner market should price near 50/50, so 12 cents is massively mispriced; edge is 0.50-0.12=+0.38/share. Full Kelly ~43%, but given uncertainty about rosters/goalies I bet conservative half-Kelly at 22% of bankroll ($220).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 77.83055329322815
}