GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-25
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.23076923076923078, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will the announcers say during Dominick Reyes vs Johnny Walker UFC Fight?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size 0. Reasoning: I have no informational edge on announcer commentary for a specific fight, and no rationale to deviate from the market's 35% consensus. Without an edge, any bet is negative-EV once you account for uncertainty in your own estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0.\n\nReasoning: I have no informational edge on announcer commentary for a specific fight, and no rationale to deviate from the market's 35% consensus. Without an edge, any bet is negative-EV once you account for uncertainty in your own estimate.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.29753589630127
}