GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-25
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 47.0, "implied_p": 0.47} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.05660377358490571, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Tampa Bay vs Chicago WS Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 47.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size 0. Reasoning: I have no informational edge on announcer commentary for a specific fight, and no rationale to deviate from the market's 35% consensus. Without an edge, any bet is negative-EV once you account for uncertainty in your own estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0.\n\nReasoning: I have no informational edge on announcer commentary for a specific fight, and no rationale to deviate from the market's 35% consensus. Without an edge, any bet is negative-EV once you account for uncertainty in your own estimate.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.29753589630127
}