GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-23
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 38.0, "implied_p": 0.38} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-23", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.1935483870967742, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Washington vs Milwaukee Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 38.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0** Rationale: I have no information advantage over the market here. My honest probability estimate for Landwehr winning is ~47%, essentially the market price of 47¢. Kelly criterion for a zero-edge bet is 0% of bankroll — betting would just add variance with no positive expected value (and negative EV after any fees/slippage). If I had a genuine, non-public edge that pushed my estimate to, say, 60%+, Kelly would suggest ~ (0.60×1 − 0.53)/1 ≈ 7% of bankroll (fractional Kelly less). But without an edge, the correct action is to sit out.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.47,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0**\n\nRationale: I have no information advantage over the market here. My honest probability estimate for Landwehr winning is ~47%, essentially the market price of 47\u00a2. Kelly criterion for a zero-edge bet is 0% of bankroll \u2014 betting would just add variance with no posit",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.931857109069824
}