GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-22
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 22.0, "implied_p": 0.22} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-22", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.358974358974359, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Palestino vs Deportes Limache Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 22.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**no_bet**, size 0. Rationale: The market implies a 22% win probability for Palestino. I have no current, reliable form/lineup data on either side (Palestino is an established Primera side; Limache a recently promoted one), so my honest estimate converges to the market's ~0.22. With no edge, expected value is ~0 and Kelly fraction is ~0 — betting would be pure variance. I'd only bet if I had genuine, verifiable information that justified p > ~0.22 (and even then, half-Kelly).
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.22,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**no_bet**, size 0.\n\nRationale: The market implies a 22% win probability for Palestino. I have no current, reliable form/lineup data on either side (Palestino is an established Primera side; Limache a recently promoted one), so my honest estimate converges to the market's ~0.22. With no edge, expect",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 22.132165908813477
}