GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-21

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 50.0, "implied_p": 0.5}
score	{"id": "market-value-21", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Jiri Prochazka win the Prochazka vs Ulberg professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 50.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

no_bet, bet_size = 0.00

I have no information edge over the market, so my best probability estimate matches the market's implied ~39%. With no edge, expected value is zero (or negative after fees), so Kelly bet size is 0.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.39,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size = 0.00\n\nI have no information edge over the market, so my best probability estimate matches the market's implied ~39%. With no edge, expected value is zero (or negative after fees), so Kelly bet size is 0.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.187798023223877
}