GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-2
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.23076923076923078, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Orlando Storm vs Louisville Kings winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size 0 With no private information about the game, my best estimate equals the market-implied probability of 35%. Zero edge means zero Kelly fraction: f = (p − S)/(1 − S) = (0.35 − 0.35)/(0.65) = 0.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0\n\nWith no private information about the game, my best estimate equals the market-implied probability of 35%. Zero edge means zero Kelly fraction: f = (p \u2212 S)/(1 \u2212 S) = (0.35 \u2212 0.35)/(0.65) = 0.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.09678602218628
}