GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-2

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49}
score	{"id": "market-value-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.01960784313725492, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Randy Brown win the Holland vs Brown professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 49.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

no_bet, bet_size 0

With no private information about the game, my best estimate equals the market-implied probability of 35%. Zero edge means zero Kelly fraction: f = (p − S)/(1 − S) = (0.35 − 0.35)/(0.65) = 0.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.35,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0\n\nWith no private information about the game, my best estimate equals the market-implied probability of 35%. Zero edge means zero Kelly fraction: f = (p \u2212 S)/(1 \u2212 S) = (0.35 \u2212 0.35)/(0.65) = 0.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.09678602218628
}