GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-value-19

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
subject	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score	{"id": "market-value-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4736842105263158, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Metizport win the Basement Bobs vs. Metizport CS2 match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 5.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

no_bet, bet_size = 0.0

Reasoning: I have no reliable private information about this CS2 match, so my best estimate is the market's implied ~5%. With p ≈ market price, there's no expected edge, and Kelly (f* = (p−q)/(1−q)) gives f* ≈ 0.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.05,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size = 0.0\n\nReasoning: I have no reliable private information about this CS2 match, so my best estimate is the market's implied ~5%. With p \u2248 market price, there's no expected edge, and Kelly (f* = (p\u2212q)/(1\u2212q)) gives f* \u2248 0.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 15.367404222488403
}