GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-0

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 58.0, "implied_p": 0.58}
score	{"id": "market-value-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will the announcers say during Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr UFC Fight?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 58.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**

Rationale: With no information about these teams beyond the market price, my best probability estimate is 0.71, matching the market. Buying at 71¢ with true p=0.71 gives expected value ≈ $0 (negative after accounting for the bookmaker's vig/overround, which typically pushes fair odds below the quoted price). No edge, no bet.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.71,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**\n\nRationale: With no information about these teams beyond the market price, my best probability estimate is 0.71, matching the market. Buying at 71\u00a2 with true p=0.71 gives expected value \u2248 $0 (negative after accounting for the bookmaker's vig/overround, which typical",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.906322956085205
}