GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-0
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Dallas Renegades vs Columbus Aviators winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 71.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0** Rationale: With no information about these teams beyond the market price, my best probability estimate is 0.71, matching the market. Buying at 71¢ with true p=0.71 gives expected value ≈ $0 (negative after accounting for the bookmaker's vig/overround, which typically pushes fair odds below the quoted price). No edge, no bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.71,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**\n\nRationale: With no information about these teams beyond the market price, my best probability estimate is 0.71, matching the market. Buying at 71\u00a2 with true p=0.71 gives expected value \u2248 $0 (negative after accounting for the bookmaker's vig/overround, which typical",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.906322956085205
}