GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-99
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.1, "implied_p": 0.001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-99", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 0.10 cents (implied probability 0.001). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is ~0.5. Over a 15-minute horizon ETH price is close to a random walk: no reliable directional signal, so P(up) ≈ 50% (roughly; you'd subtract a hair for the tiny chance of a zero move). At the market's implied 0.001, that's a massive mispricing. With $1000 and Kelly sizing (b ≈ 999, p = 0.5): f* = (0.5·1000 − 1)/999 ≈ 0.5, so buy YES up to ~$500 of bankroll.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.5,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is ~0.5.\n\nOver a 15-minute horizon ETH price is close to a random walk: no reliable directional signal, so P(up) \u2248 50% (roughly; you'd subtract a hair for the tiny chance of a zero move).\n\nAt the market's implied 0.001, that's a massive mispricing. With $1000 and Kelly sizing (b \u2248 999",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.536517858505249
}