GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-97

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-97", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Malik Ellison win the Ballislife x OTD 1v1 between Dominique "Left Hand Dom" Alexander and Malik Ellison?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.98.

The market's 0.990 is a strong anchor, but extreme-priced contracts are where markets are least reliable (thin liquidity, low upside for YES holders), and crossing the $105 threshold requires a sharp oil spike with no guarantee the front-month settles there. I can't verify the actual Apr 2, 2026 settle from memory, so I discount the market modestly rather than match it outright.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.98,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.98.\n\nThe market's 0.990 is a strong anchor, but extreme-priced contracts are where markets are least reliable (thin liquidity, low upside for YES holders), and crossing the $105 threshold requires a sharp oil spike with no guarantee the front-month settles there. I can't verify the actual Apr 2, ",
 "refused": true,
 "duration_s": 12.964854717254639
}