GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-96
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 65.0, "implied_p": 0.65} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-96", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the March Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?". The market currently prices YES at 65.00 cents (implied probability 0.650). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.99
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.99",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.27817702293396
}