GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-94
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.2, "implied_p": 0.992} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-94", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 1.0, "prob_error": 1.0, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 99.20 cents (implied probability 0.992). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is ≈ **0.990** — essentially the market's implied probability, nudged down slightly for spread/slippage since I have no private signal that ETH moves up within 15 minutes. With that price I'd bet **nothing**: at 99.2¢ my fair probability ≈ price, so expected value ≈ 0 and Kelly says stake ≈ 0% of the $1000 bankroll.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.0,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is \u2248 **0.990** \u2014 essentially the market's implied probability, nudged down slightly for spread/slippage since I have no private signal that ETH moves up within 15 minutes.\n\nWith that price I'd bet **nothing**: at 99.2\u00a2 my fair probability \u2248 price, so expected value \u2248 0 and Kelly says ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.142239093780518
}