GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-93
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-93", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.99. Rationale: the question lacks a price threshold, so there's no independent signal to dispute the market's implied 99% — and with the date now in the past and the market still pinned near 99¢, the likeliest state is that it resolved YES. I'd shade the market only marginally, to 0.99.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.99.\n\nRationale: the question lacks a price threshold, so there's no independent signal to dispute the market's implied 99% \u2014 and with the date now in the past and the market still pinned near 99\u00a2, the likeliest state is that it resolved YES. I'd shade the market only marginally, to 0.99.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.076517105102539
}