GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-92
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-92", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009000000000000016, "prob_error": 0.030000000000000027, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cincinnati wins by over 4.5 runs?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.97. With no game-state info, the market price (0.990) is my best anchor, but I'd shade it down: prediction markets systematically overprice near-certain contracts (extremes biased away from true prob), so fair probability likely sits below 0.99. That also means the trade would be to sell YES at 99¢.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.97,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.97.\n\nWith no game-state info, the market price (0.990) is my best anchor, but I'd shade it down: prediction markets systematically overprice near-certain contracts (extremes biased away from true prob), so fair probability likely sits below 0.99. That also means the trade would be to sell YES at ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 27.07644009590149
}