GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-91

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 69.0, "implied_p": 0.69}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-91", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009000000000000016, "prob_error": 0.030000000000000027, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Tyson Fury say during Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek FINAL PRESS CONFERENCE?". The market currently prices YES at 69.00 cents (implied probability 0.690). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.97 — slightly below the market's 0.99, since the question's outcome condition is ambiguous to me and even strong markets carry a few percent of tail risk (expiry, definitional disputes, liquidity).

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.97,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.97 \u2014 slightly below the market's 0.99, since the question's outcome condition is ambiguous to me and even strong markets carry a few percent of tail risk (expiry, definitional disputes, liquidity).",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.768578052520752
}