GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-9
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-9", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Dusan Lajovic win the Jodar vs Lajovic : Round Of 32 match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that YES (Lajovic wins) resolves is roughly **0.65**. Reasoning: Lajovic is a veteran ATP tour player (career-high #23); a 1% implied price essentially gives him no chance, which is not credible against any non-top player. The market is heavily underpricing him. Unless Lajovic is clearly injured/out-of-form or Jodar is a top-tier opponent, the fair price is far above 0.01. This looks like a mispriced market where betting YES is strongly +EV.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that YES (Lajovic wins) resolves is roughly **0.65**.\n\nReasoning: Lajovic is a veteran ATP tour player (career-high #23); a 1% implied price essentially gives him no chance, which is not credible against any non-top player. The market is heavily underpricing him. Unless Lajovic is cle",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 17.003879070281982
}