GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-89
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-89", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 28, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The question is under-specified — "Bitcoin price on Mar 28, 2026?" has no threshold (above/below $X?). Without the resolution condition I can't calibrate properly. Assuming a typical "Bitcoin ≥ some level" market priced at 0.99, my probability is **0.98**. I'd shade slightly below the market price: extreme-priced markets (≥0.95) tend to overprice the favorite, and you've given me no independent signal beyond the market's own price.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The question is under-specified \u2014 \"Bitcoin price on Mar 28, 2026?\" has no threshold (above/below $X?). Without the resolution condition I can't calibrate properly.\n\nAssuming a typical \"Bitcoin \u2265 some level\" market priced at 0.99, my probability is **0.98**. I'd shade slightly below the market price:",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 14.372774124145508
}