GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-87
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-87", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.004899999999999993, "prob_error": 0.06999999999999995, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Yu Hsiou Hsu win the Hsu vs Boulais : Round Of 32 match?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: ~0.93 (93%) that YES resolves. Reasoning: Hsu (ATP ~206) is a strong favorite over qualifier Boulais (~400), with a 2-0 H2H. That justifies a heavy favorite, but ~0.99 is too high — it's in the favorite-longshot bias range and leaves the long-shot side underpriced. Bet: at 1 cent for NO, buying NO has positive EV (~5.9 cents/share). Kelly on that edge suggests staking roughly ~6% of bankroll (~$60 on NO).
Parsed
{
"action": "no_play",
"bet_size": 0.06,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.93,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: ~0.93 (93%) that YES resolves.\n\nReasoning: Hsu (ATP ~206) is a strong favorite over qualifier Boulais (~400), with a 2-0 H2H. That justifies a heavy favorite, but ~0.99 is too high \u2014 it's in the favorite-longshot bias range and leaves the long-shot side underpriced.\n\nBet: at 1 cent f",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 26.089900016784668
}