GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-86
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.9, "implied_p": 0.9990000000000001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-86", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 9.999999999997797e-07, "prob_error": 0.0009999999999998899, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 99.90 cents (implied probability 0.999). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.55** (maybe 0.50–0.60), far below the market's implied 0.999. A 15-minute "up or down" on ETH is essentially a coin flip with a slight upward drift — no way to justify 99.9%. That price is anchored noise. With a $1000 bankroll, this is a huge edge: buy NO at ~0.1¢. Your expected value per NO share is roughly `0.55 × $1 − $0.001 ≈ 0.55`, i.e. ~50,000x the risk. Even at a true probability of 0.98, NO would still be positive EV. I'd size aggressively (subject to liquidity/fees).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9990000000000001,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.55** (maybe 0.50\u20130.60), far below the market's implied 0.999.\n\nA 15-minute \"up or down\" on ETH is essentially a coin flip with a slight upward drift \u2014 no way to justify 99.9%. That price is anchored noise.\n\nWith a $1000 bankroll, this is a huge edge: buy NO at ~0.1\u00a2. Your expect",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.416756868362427
}