GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-85
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-85", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Marco Cecchinato win the Harris vs Cecchinato : Round Of 16 match?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.97 The market's 0.99 is plausible if Cecchinato is a heavy favorite, but I discount extreme prices slightly: tail risk (injury, retirement, withdrawal, unknown about this Harris player) means the true probability is usually a bit below the posted 99%.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.97\n\nThe market's 0.99 is plausible if Cecchinato is a heavy favorite, but I discount extreme prices slightly: tail risk (injury, retirement, withdrawal, unknown about this Harris player) means the true probability is usually a bit below the posted 99%.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.542291402816772
}