GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-84
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.9, "implied_p": 0.9990000000000001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-84", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000044, "prob_error": 0.050000000000000044, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 14?". The market currently prices YES at 99.90 cents (implied probability 0.999). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**0.95** (95%). Rationale: the market's 0.999 is my strongest prior, but prices above ~0.99 in crypto prediction markets are often illiquid and slightly overstated. I regress toward a genuine probability of ~0.95 — high, but not certain — to account for exchange/date ambiguity and thin-book bias.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.95,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**0.95** (95%).\n\nRationale: the market's 0.999 is my strongest prior, but prices above ~0.99 in crypto prediction markets are often illiquid and slightly overstated. I regress toward a genuine probability of ~0.95 \u2014 high, but not certain \u2014 to account for exchange/date ambiguity and thin-book bias.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.160564184188843
}