GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-82
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-82", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6500.01 by Jan 1, 2027?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.99 (99%)** Key evidence: This matches Kalshi's "How low will the S&P get this year?" contract (window Jan 1, 2026 – Jan 1, 2027). That threshold was already breached — on **Mar 30, 2026** the S&P 500 closed at **6,343.72** (intraday low **6,316.91**), both well below 6,500.01 (also closed 6,477 on Mar 26). So YES has effectively already occurred regardless of whether resolution uses intraday lows or daily closes. The market's 94¢ price understates a ~$1.00 resolved outcome — buy YES (positive EV; roughly 6¢ expected gain/share).
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.99 (99%)**\n\nKey evidence: This matches Kalshi's \"How low will the S&P get this year?\" contract (window Jan 1, 2026 \u2013 Jan 1, 2027). That threshold was already breached \u2014 on **Mar 30, 2026** the S&P 500 closed at **6,343.72** (intraday low **6,316.91**), both well below 6,500.01 (",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 167.02428793907166
}