GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-80
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 90.0, "implied_p": 0.9} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-80", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.81, "prob_error": 0.9, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?". The market currently prices YES at 90.00 cents (implied probability 0.900). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.80** (below the market's 0.90). Rationale: AAA's national regular average is $4.095 (8/3/26), ~4.5¢ below the $4.140 threshold, with prices essentially flat over the past week and August typically seasonally soft. Crude at $80+ (Hormuz instability) gives upside tail risk, but not enough to justify 90%. Bet implication with $1000 bankroll: don't buy YES at $0.90 (negative EV at p=0.80). Buy **NO at $0.10** — Kelly stake ≈ 11% of bankroll ≈ **$111**.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": 0.11,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.80** (below the market's 0.90).\n\nRationale: AAA's national regular average is $4.095 (8/3/26), ~4.5\u00a2 below the $4.140 threshold, with prices essentially flat over the past week and August typically seasonally soft. Crude at $80+ (Hormuz instability) gives upside tail risk, but n",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 34.64510989189148
}