GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-8

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-8", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.12249999999999998, "prob_error": 0.35, "calibration_bin": 3}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "BTC price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**~35%**

My probability is far above the market's 1%. "Oil" is an extremely common word that surfaces in nearly any substantive briefing (energy prices, inflation, Russia/Iran/Venezuela sanctions, OPEC, gas prices). Conditioning on a briefing actually occurring in the window (~75-80%) and the word "oil" appearing in it (~45%), I land around 30-40%. The 1-cent price looks like an illiquid/stale market rather than an accurate signal — at 35% EV that's a clear buy.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.35,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**~35%**\n\nMy probability is far above the market's 1%. \"Oil\" is an extremely common word that surfaces in nearly any substantive briefing (energy prices, inflation, Russia/Iran/Venezuela sanctions, OPEC, gas prices). Conditioning on a briefing actually occurring in the window (~75-80%) and the word ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 25.46375298500061
}