GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-8
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-8", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.12249999999999998, "prob_error": 0.35, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "Will the White House Press Secretary say Oil at her next press briefing?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**~35%** My probability is far above the market's 1%. "Oil" is an extremely common word that surfaces in nearly any substantive briefing (energy prices, inflation, Russia/Iran/Venezuela sanctions, OPEC, gas prices). Conditioning on a briefing actually occurring in the window (~75-80%) and the word "oil" appearing in it (~45%), I land around 30-40%. The 1-cent price looks like an illiquid/stale market rather than an accurate signal — at 35% EV that's a clear buy.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**~35%**\n\nMy probability is far above the market's 1%. \"Oil\" is an extremely common word that surfaces in nearly any substantive briefing (energy prices, inflation, Russia/Iran/Venezuela sanctions, OPEC, gas prices). Conditioning on a briefing actually occurring in the window (~75-80%) and the word ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 25.46375298500061
}