GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-79
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-79", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.30250000000000005, "prob_error": 0.55, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will MOUZ NXT win the fnatic vs. MOUZ NXT CS2 match?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: 0.45 (45%)** The market price (94¢) is a large outlier versus the fundamentals: bookmaker consensus priced MOUZ NXT at ~43% (fnatic ~1.63), tipster models ~36%, and fnatic held the edge in ranking (#17 vs #83), form (5-0 vs 3-loss streak), and 30-day winrate (100% vs 30%). A 50-point gap between this market and bookmakers is far more consistent with a thin/noisy market than genuine private information, and this is a high-variance BO1. I anchor to the professional consensus, not the price. If I had to bet with a $1,000 bankroll, that ~45% vs. 94¢ ask would be a strong NO (fnatic) position.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.45,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: 0.45 (45%)**\n\nThe market price (94\u00a2) is a large outlier versus the fundamentals: bookmaker consensus priced MOUZ NXT at ~43% (fnatic ~1.63), tipster models ~36%, and fnatic held the edge in ranking (#17 vs #83), form (5-0 vs 3-loss streak), and 30-day winrate (100% vs 30%). A 50-po",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 60.37497282028198
}