GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-76
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 80.0, "implied_p": 0.8} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-76", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.03999999999999998, "prob_error": 0.19999999999999996, "calibration_bin": 8} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 80.00 cents (implied probability 0.800). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
```json
{"probability": 0.80, "confidence": 0.75, "reasoning": "The specific price range is unspecified and I have no private information about Bitcoin on Mar 31, 2026, so the market's implied probability of 0.80 is my best calibrated estimate."}
```
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": 0.75,
"probability": 0.8,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The specific price range is unspecified and I have no private information about Bitcoin on Mar 31, 2026, so the market's implied probability of 0.80 is my best calibrated estimate.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 54.044848918914795
}