GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-75
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-75", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.90** (90%). Rationale: With no edge over the market and unknown contract threshold, the market's 0.92 is my prior; I shade slightly to ~0.90 for typical favorite-overpricing bias in prediction markets. Note the event (Apr 17, 2026) has already resolved — BTC traded ~$75k–$77k that day — but without the market's exact YES threshold I can't update further.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.90** (90%).\n\nRationale: With no edge over the market and unknown contract threshold, the market's 0.92 is my prior; I shade slightly to ~0.90 for typical favorite-overpricing bias in prediction markets. Note the event (Apr 17, 2026) has already resolved \u2014 BTC traded ~$75k\u2013$77k th",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 20.170319080352783
}