GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-73

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 48.0, "implied_p": 0.48}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-73", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0036000000000000064, "prob_error": 0.06000000000000005, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Minnesota win the 1H by over 5.5 points?". The market currently prices YES at 48.00 cents (implied probability 0.480). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: ~0.50.

For a 15-minute window, ETH's up/down move is close to a coin flip (drift over 15 min is tiny vs. volatility). The 94-cent price is heavily overpriced — a genuine 94% probability of an up move in 15 minutes is essentially never justified. If I had to pick a number, I'd say **0.50** (give or take, maybe 0.52 for slight upward drift), not 0.94.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.94,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: ~0.50.\n\nFor a 15-minute window, ETH's up/down move is close to a coin flip (drift over 15 min is tiny vs. volatility). The 94-cent price is heavily overpriced \u2014 a genuine 94% probability of an up move in 15 minutes is essentially never justified. If I had to pick a number, I'd say **",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.74159574508667
}