GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-73
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-73", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0036000000000000064, "prob_error": 0.06000000000000005, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: ~0.50. For a 15-minute window, ETH's up/down move is close to a coin flip (drift over 15 min is tiny vs. volatility). The 94-cent price is heavily overpriced — a genuine 94% probability of an up move in 15 minutes is essentially never justified. If I had to pick a number, I'd say **0.50** (give or take, maybe 0.52 for slight upward drift), not 0.94.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.94,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: ~0.50.\n\nFor a 15-minute window, ETH's up/down move is close to a coin flip (drift over 15 min is tiny vs. volatility). The 94-cent price is heavily overpriced \u2014 a genuine 94% probability of an up move in 15 minutes is essentially never justified. If I had to pick a number, I'd say **",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.74159574508667
}