GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-72
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-72", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.9025, "prob_error": 0.95, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.110?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is around **0.05 (5%)**. Reasoning: US national average gas prices have hovered around $3.10–$3.50 in recent years, well below the $4.110 threshold. The market's 0.94 price looks materially overpriced — I'd estimate the chance of average prices staying above $4.11 as quite low, perhaps 5%, unless there's a major supply shock.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.05,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is around **0.05 (5%)**.\n\nReasoning: US national average gas prices have hovered around $3.10\u2013$3.50 in recent years, well below the $4.110 threshold. The market's 0.94 price looks materially overpriced \u2014 I'd estimate the chance of average prices staying above $4.11 as quite low, perha",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.896160125732422
}