GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-71
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-71", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.009999999999999995, "prob_error": 0.09999999999999998, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.90. The market's 0.92 is the best available estimate; I shade marginally below to account for the vagueness of the resolution condition. At 92¢ a YES bet has negative expected value for me, so I'd stand aside.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.90. The market's 0.92 is the best available estimate; I shade marginally below to account for the vagueness of the resolution condition. At 92\u00a2 a YES bet has negative expected value for me, so I'd stand aside.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.383292198181152
}