GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-71

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 45.0, "implied_p": 0.45}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-71", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.81, "prob_error": 0.9, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6564.9999 on Apr 7, 2026 at 10am EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 45.00 cents (implied probability 0.450). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.90. The market's 0.92 is the best available estimate; I shade marginally below to account for the vagueness of the resolution condition. At 92¢ a YES bet has negative expected value for me, so I'd stand aside.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.9,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.90. The market's 0.92 is the best available estimate; I shade marginally below to account for the vagueness of the resolution condition. At 92\u00a2 a YES bet has negative expected value for me, so I'd stand aside.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.383292198181152
}