GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-70
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-70", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.006399999999999993, "prob_error": 0.07999999999999996, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6499.9999 on Apr 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**1.00** (certain). The event already resolved. The S&P 500 closed at **6,582.69** on Apr 2, 2026 (StatMuse data), which is above the 6,499.9999 threshold. So the market resolves YES — the market price of 0.92 was underpricing it.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.92,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**1.00** (certain).\n\nThe event already resolved. The S&P 500 closed at **6,582.69** on Apr 2, 2026 (StatMuse data), which is above the 6,499.9999 threshold. So the market resolves YES \u2014 the market price of 0.92 was underpricing it.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.24875497817993
}