GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-69
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-69", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Malik Ellison win the Ballislife x OTD 1v1 between Dominique "Left Hand Dom" Alexander and Malik Ellison?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Malik Ellison already won this matchup — final score 31-11 at Judgement Day (Mar 28, 2026), per Ballislife's live log. The market resolves YES. My probability: **~0.99** (allowing only a sliver of residual risk for resolution/voiding issues). Note: the YES side was mispriced at 0.75 — at ~0.99 true probability that was a huge edge.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Malik Ellison already won this matchup \u2014 final score 31-11 at Judgement Day (Mar 28, 2026), per Ballislife's live log. The market resolves YES.\n\nMy probability: **~0.99** (allowing only a sliver of residual risk for resolution/voiding issues).\n\nNote: the YES side was mispriced at 0.75 \u2014 at ~0.99 tru",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.0561261177063
}