GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-66
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 77.0, "implied_p": 0.77} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-66", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.6084, "prob_error": 0.78, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.155?". The market currently prices YES at 77.00 cents (implied probability 0.770). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I have no information edge over this market, so I defer to its price: my probability is **0.78** (market implies 0.770).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.78,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I have no information edge over this market, so I defer to its price: my probability is **0.78** (market implies 0.770).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.421473979949951
}