GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-65
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 62.0, "implied_p": 0.62} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-65", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.07840000000000001, "prob_error": 0.28, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 60000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 62.00 cents (implied probability 0.620). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: 0.72** Reasoning: - 60,000 is a very low bar for monthly US nonfarm payrolls (long-run base rate of exceeding it is well above 0.9 in normal conditions). - The market's 0.62 likely embeds some downside expectation (tariff/labor-market cooling), which I partially respect but think is overstated given such a low threshold. - I anchor heavily on the market price but shade it modestly upward on fundamentals, so ~0.72 rather than a full reversion to base rate.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.72,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: 0.72**\n\nReasoning:\n- 60,000 is a very low bar for monthly US nonfarm payrolls (long-run base rate of exceeding it is well above 0.9 in normal conditions).\n- The market's 0.62 likely embeds some downside expectation (tariff/labor-market cooling), which I partially respect but think ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.680611848831177
}