GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-65
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 43.0, "implied_p": 0.43} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-65", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.5184, "prob_error": 0.72, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 26, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 43.00 cents (implied probability 0.430). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: 0.72** Reasoning: - 60,000 is a very low bar for monthly US nonfarm payrolls (long-run base rate of exceeding it is well above 0.9 in normal conditions). - The market's 0.62 likely embeds some downside expectation (tariff/labor-market cooling), which I partially respect but think is overstated given such a low threshold. - I anchor heavily on the market price but shade it modestly upward on fundamentals, so ~0.72 rather than a full reversion to base rate.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.72,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: 0.72**\n\nReasoning:\n- 60,000 is a very low bar for monthly US nonfarm payrolls (long-run base rate of exceeding it is well above 0.9 in normal conditions).\n- The market's 0.62 likely embeds some downside expectation (tariff/labor-market cooling), which I partially respect but think ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.680611848831177
}