GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-64
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 79.0, "implied_p": 0.79} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-64", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 24, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 79.00 cents (implied probability 0.790). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't give a meaningful probability here because the resolution criteria are underspecified — the market title just says "Bitcoin price range" with no actual range, so there's no well-defined YES outcome to estimate. Also, Mar 24, 2026 is already in the past (today is Aug 3, 2026). Absent that, the rational estimate is the market's own: 0.790, with the caveat that it's noise without the range definition. I wouldn't bet my bankroll on anything based on this question as written.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't give a meaningful probability here because the resolution criteria are underspecified \u2014 the market title just says \"Bitcoin price range\" with no actual range, so there's no well-defined YES outcome to estimate. Also, Mar 24, 2026 is already in the past (today is Aug 3, 2026).\n\nAbsent that, t",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 16.169135808944702
}