GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-62
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 77.0, "implied_p": 0.77} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-62", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.022500000000000006, "prob_error": 0.15000000000000002, "calibration_bin": 8} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 30000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 77.00 cents (implied probability 0.770). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~0.85 (85%)** The 30k threshold is a very low bar — monthly payroll prints typically land well above it, and even a soft labor market with tariff/recession drag usually still posts 50–120k. My reasoning: P(YES) ≈ 88% base rate, shaded down to ~85% for fat-tail risks (a negative month, data surprises). I'd buy YES at 0.77, as the market looks slightly underpriced relative to the threshold. I'd bet roughly $40–60 on YES at that price given the $1000 bankroll.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.85,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~0.85 (85%)**\n\nThe 30k threshold is a very low bar \u2014 monthly payroll prints typically land well above it, and even a soft labor market with tariff/recession drag usually still posts 50\u2013120k. My reasoning: P(YES) \u2248 88% base rate, shaded down to ~85% for fat-tail risks (a negative mo",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.5130558013916
}