GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-60
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 67.0, "implied_p": 0.67} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-60", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009, "prob_error": 0.03, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "HIFK Helsinki vs KalPa Kuopio Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 67.00 cents (implied probability 0.670). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that HIFK Helsinki wins: **0.66**. I'm close to the market price (0.67) but shade slightly lower. Recent H2H/form support HIFK as a clear favorite (strong home form, beat KalPa in the 2026 playoff series), but prediction markets typically embed ~2–3% overround, so the de-vigged true probability is a bit below the listed price. I'd bet YES only if I could buy below ~0.64.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.03,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that HIFK Helsinki wins: **0.66**.\n\nI'm close to the market price (0.67) but shade slightly lower. Recent H2H/form support HIFK as a clear favorite (strong home form, beat KalPa in the 2026 playoff series), but prediction markets typically embed ~2\u20133% overround, so the de-vigged true ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.715450048446655
}