GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-6

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009, "prob_error": 0.03, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Science and Technology): "What will be the top AI model this month?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

{"probability": 0.03, "confidence": 0.25, "reasoning": "The specific price range is not stated, so I anchor to the market's implied 3% as my best estimate for a far-dated BTC range market."}

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": 0.25,
 "probability": 0.03,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "The specific price range is not stated, so I anchor to the market's implied 3% as my best estimate for a far-dated BTC range market.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 41.08705711364746
}