GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-6
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 3.0, "implied_p": 0.03} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0009, "prob_error": 0.03, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 3.00 cents (implied probability 0.030). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
{"probability": 0.03, "confidence": 0.25, "reasoning": "The specific price range is not stated, so I anchor to the market's implied 3% as my best estimate for a far-dated BTC range market."}
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": 0.25,
"probability": 0.03,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The specific price range is not stated, so I anchor to the market's implied 3% as my best estimate for a far-dated BTC range market.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 41.08705711364746
}