GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-58
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-58", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Shohei Ohtani: 7+ strikeouts?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: roughly **0.70**. The market's 0.75 (after vig/edge) is a touch high for Ohtani's distribution — he's a ~10-11 K/9 pitcher who often gets pulled at ~6 IP, and hitting 7+ depends on both efficiency and pitch count. I'd shade slightly below market: **70%**.
Parsed
{
"action": "hit",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.7,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: roughly **0.70**.\n\nThe market's 0.75 (after vig/edge) is a touch high for Ohtani's distribution \u2014 he's a ~10-11 K/9 pitcher who often gets pulled at ~6 IP, and hitting 7+ depends on both efficiency and pitch count. I'd shade slightly below market: **70%**.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.096746921539307
}