GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-53
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 47.0, "implied_p": 0.47} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-53", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.1936, "prob_error": 0.44, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.02?". The market currently prices YES at 47.00 cents (implied probability 0.470). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~0.44 (44%)** Reasoning: This is the Kalshi monthly gas market (KXAAAGASM), resolving on the AAA national average regular price on Aug 31, 2026. Current AAA print is $4.095 — about 7.5¢ above the $4.02 strike. But the trajectory points down: crude has eased (WTI ~$74 after the US-Iran deal), there's wholesale-to-retail pass-through still to hit, and August typically brings seasonal declines. The market's own strike ladder (P>3.90 = 58%, P>4.00 = 44%) implies the Aug 31 print lands near ~$3.97, i.e., below $4.02. That points to ~41–45%, so I'd shade slightly under the 47¢ quote.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.44,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~0.44 (44%)**\n\nReasoning: This is the Kalshi monthly gas market (KXAAAGASM), resolving on the AAA national average regular price on Aug 31, 2026. Current AAA print is $4.095 \u2014 about 7.5\u00a2 above the $4.02 strike. But the trajectory points down: crude has eased (WTI ~$74 after the US-",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 74.72257113456726
}