GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-51
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-51", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2601, "prob_error": 0.51, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 80000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 49.00 cents (implied probability 0.490). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**~1.00** (i.e., YES with near-certainty). The March 2026 jobs report (released April 3, 2026) shows nonfarm payrolls rose **+178,000** — far above the 80,000 threshold. The market priced YES at 0.49 because consensus was ~60k, but the actual print (boosted partly by a healthcare strike reversal) resolves the contract YES.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.49,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**~1.00** (i.e., YES with near-certainty).\n\nThe March 2026 jobs report (released April 3, 2026) shows nonfarm payrolls rose **+178,000** \u2014 far above the 80,000 threshold. The market priced YES at 0.49 because consensus was ~60k, but the actual print (boosted partly by a healthcare strike reversal) r",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 27.17572021484375
}