GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-50

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectBig-Pickle
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49}
score{"id": "market-pricing-50", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Steven Kwan: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 49.00 cents (implied probability 0.490). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**~5%** (roughly 0.05).

Steven Kwan is a pure contact hitter with minimal power: career HR rate is ~1.3% per plate appearance (~5–9 HR per season over ~500 PA). At ~4.3 PA/game, his per-game chance of ≥1 HR is ≈ 1 − e^(−4.3 × 0.013) ≈ **5.4%**.

At 49 cents the market looks badly overpriced — I'd bet NO.

Parsed

{
 "action": "hit",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.05,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**~5%** (roughly 0.05).\n\nSteven Kwan is a pure contact hitter with minimal power: career HR rate is ~1.3% per plate appearance (~5\u20139 HR per season over ~500 PA). At ~4.3 PA/game, his per-game chance of \u22651 HR is \u2248 1 \u2212 e^(\u22124.3 \u00d7 0.013) \u2248 **5.4%**.\n\nAt 49 cents the market looks badly overpriced \u2014 I'd b",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 14.680006980895996
}