GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-5
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 2.0, "implied_p": 0.02} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-5", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 7, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 2.00 cents (implied probability 0.020). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Not a probability question — Apr 7, 2026 is in the past (today is Aug 3, 2026), so the market has already resolved. My probability is therefore 0 or 1, determined by the actual price, not a forecast. BTC traded ~$67,740–$72,730 on Apr 7, 2026 (close ≈ $71,940). I can't say YES/NO because the question omits the specific price range the market is asking about. Give me the range and I'll tell you the answer with certainty.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Not a probability question \u2014 Apr 7, 2026 is in the past (today is Aug 3, 2026), so the market has already resolved. My probability is therefore 0 or 1, determined by the actual price, not a forecast.\n\nBTC traded ~$67,740\u2013$72,730 on Apr 7, 2026 (close \u2248 $71,940). I can't say YES/NO because the questi",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 25.45211911201477
}