GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-49

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 37.0, "implied_p": 0.37}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-49", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2304, "prob_error": 0.48, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will MrBeast say during Next MrBeast Youtube Video?". The market currently prices YES at 37.00 cents (implied probability 0.370). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

0.52 — without specific match context (opponent, venue, form), the efficient market price is my best estimate, so I'd anchor close to the market.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.52,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "0.52 \u2014 without specific match context (opponent, venue, form), the efficient market price is my best estimate, so I'd anchor close to the market.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.472891807556152
}